Wales v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 24
23 October 1999Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.2 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Allan Bateman
- 17Mike Voyle
- 18Ben Evans
- 19Andrew Lewis
- 20Stephen Jones+0.2
- 21David Llewellyn
- 22Jonathan Humphreys
Australia
- 1Richard Harry
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Andrew Blades
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Eales(c)
- 6Matt Cockbain
- 7David Wilson
- 8Tiaan Strauss
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Tim Horan
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 16Jason Little
- 17Mark Connors
- 18Owen Finegan
- 19Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 20Nathan Grey+10.3
- 21Chris Whitaker
- 22Dan Crowley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.