England v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 44
24 October 1999Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about England v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.2 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Phil Greening
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Phil de Glanville
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Nick Beal
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Austin Healey
- 17Mike Catt+2.3
- 18Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 19Martin Corry-6.2
- 20Tim Rodber
- 21Darren Garforth
- 22Richard Cockerill
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2Naka Drotske
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Krynauw Otto
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Johan Erasmus
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen(c)
- 10Jannie de Beer
- 11Pieter Rossouw
- 12Pieter Muller
- 13Robbie Fleck
- 14Deon Kayser
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 17Andre Vos
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Ollie le Roux
- 20Henry Honiball
- 21Werner Swanepoel
- 22Chris Rossouw
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.