South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 18
4 November 1999Principality Stadium, Cardiff · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2Naka Drotske
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Krynauw Otto
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Johan Erasmus
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Andre Vos
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen(c)
- 10Henry Honiball
- 11Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 12Pieter Muller
- 13Robbie Fleck
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Werner Swanepoel
- 17Ruben Kruger
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Ollie le Roux
- 20Chris Rossouw
- 21Wayne Julies
- 22Jannie de Beer
New Zealand
- 1Craig Dowd
- 2Mark Hammett
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Royce Willis
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Alama Ieremia
- 13Christian Cullen
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Pita Alatini
- 17Dylan Mika
- 18Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 19Anton Oliver-0.3
- 20Tony Brown
- 21Rhys Duggan
- 22Ian Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.