Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
60 – 13
4 March 2000Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 3.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Kieron Dawson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Mike Mullins
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 17Dion O'Cuinneagain
- 18Rob Henderson-2.2
- 19Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 20Paddy Johns
- 21Guy Easterby
- 22David Humphreys
Italy
- 1Massimo Cuttitta
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Tino Paoletti
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Wim Visser
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Luca Martin
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Juan Francesio
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Carlo Orlandi
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Giuseppe Lanzi
- 19Laurent Travini
- 20Giampiero Mazzi
- 21Marco Rivaro
- 22Giacomo Preo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.