Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 18
18 March 2000Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 43 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Nathan Budgett
- 7Colin Charvis-5.3
- 8Geraint Lewis
- 9Rupert Moon
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Mark Taylor+1.1
- 13Allan Bateman
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Matt Cardey
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17Spencer John
- 18Alix Popham+1.5
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Richard Smith
- 21Jason Strange
- 22Dafydd James-9.4
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Steve Brotherstone
- 3Mattie Stewart
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Stuart Reid
- 9Andy Nicol
- 10Duncan Hodge
- 11Glenn Metcalfe
- 12John Leslie(c)-1.3
- 13Gregor Townsend
- 14Craig Moir
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Gordon Bulloch
- 17Dave Hilton
- 18Doddie Weir
- 19Cameron Mather
- 20Bryan Redpath
- 21Alan Bulloch
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.