New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 12
22 July 2000Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 02:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 9.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Todd Blackadder(c)
- 5Troy Flavell
- 6Taine Randell
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Mark Robinson
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Christian Cullen
Replacements
- 16Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 17Norm Maxwell
- 18Craig Dowd
- 19Mark Hammett
- 20Tony Brown
- 21Scott Robertson
- 22Byron Kelleher-16.4
South Africa
- 1Robbie Kempson
- 2Charl Marais
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 5Andre Venter
- 6Johan Erasmus
- 7Corne Krige-5.2
- 8Andre Vos(c)
- 9Werner Swanepoel
- 10Braam van Straaten
- 11Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Robbie Fleck
- 14Thinus Delport
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Warren Brosnihan
- 17Willie Meyer
- 18John Smit+6.0
- 19Jannes Labuschagne
- 20Joost van der Westhuizen
- 21Grant Esterhuizen
- 22Chester Williams
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.