New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 24
5 August 2000Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 02:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 9.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Todd Blackadder(c)
- 5Norm Maxwell
- 6Taine Randell
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Alama Ieremia
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Christian Cullen
Replacements
- 16Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 17Tony Brown
- 18Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 19Craig Dowd
- 20Mark Hammett
- 21Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 22Troy Flavell
Australia
- 1Richard Harry
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Fletcher Dyson
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Eales(c)
- 7David Wilson
- 8Jim Williams
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Jason Little
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Mark Connors
- 18Ben Tune-0.3
- 19Toutai Kefu
- 19Rod Kafer
- 20Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 21Matt Cockbain
- 22Glen Panoho
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.