South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 40
19 August 2000Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 11.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ollie le Roux
- 2Charl Marais
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Andre Venter
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Johan Erasmus
- 7Corne Krige-5.2
- 8Andre Vos(c)
- 9Werner Swanepoel
- 10Braam van Straaten
- 11Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 12Robbie Fleck
- 13Grant Esterhuizen
- 14Chester Williams
- 15Thinus Delport
Replacements
- 16Willie Meyer
- 17Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 18Warren Brosnihan
- 19John Smit+6.0
- 20Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
- 21Joost van der Westhuizen
- 22Percy Montgomery+0.2
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Todd Blackadder(c)
- 5Norm Maxwell
- 6Taine Randell
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Alama Ieremia
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Christian Cullen
Replacements
- 16Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 17Scott Robertson
- 18Troy Flavell
- 19Greg Somerville+6.5
- 20Mark Hammett
- 21Tony Brown
- 22Byron Kelleher-16.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.