France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 43
17 March 2001Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.3 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Christian Califano-10.0
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5David Auradou-6.7
- 6Christophe Moni
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Christophe Juillet
- 9Fabien Galthie+6.5
- 10Gerald Merceron
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Thomas Lombard
- 13Sebastien Bonetti
- 14Philippe Bernat-Salles
- 15Jean-Luc Sadourny
Replacements
- 16Christophe Lamaison
- 17Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 18Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 19Fabrice Landreau
- 20Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 21Philippe Carbonneau
- 22Pepito Elhorga
Wales
- 1Darren Morris
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Stephen Jones+0.2
- 17Geraint Lewis
- 18Andrew Lewis
- 19Craig Quinnell
- 20Chris Anthony
- 21Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 22Allan Bateman
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.