New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 15
25 August 2001Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.4 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver(c)-0.3
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Chris Jack
- 6Troy Flavell
- 7Taine Randell
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Jeff Wilson
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Mark Cooksley
- 17Marty Holah-0.8
- 18Carl Hayman-10.3
- 19Mark Hammett
- 20Doug Howlett-3.2
- 21Justin Marshall
- 22Tony Brown
South Africa
- 1Robbie Kempson
- 2Lukas van Biljon
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Victor Matfield-1.4
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Andre Vos
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Bobby Skinstad(c)+2.3
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Dean Hall
- 12Braam van Straaten
- 13Andre Snyman
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Conrad Jantjes
Replacements
- 16Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 17John Smit+6.0
- 18Ollie le Roux
- 19Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 20Deon Kayser
- 21Neil de Kock
- 22Thinus Delport
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.