Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 17
23 March 2002Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Gary Longwell
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys(c)
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Shane Horgan+5.3
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14John Kelly
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Ronan O'Gara
- 17Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 18Paul Wallace
- 19Eric Miller-2.2
- 20Tyrone Howe
- 21Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 22Guy Easterby
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 4Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Federico Pucciariello
- 17Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 18Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 19Andrea Moretti
- 20Matteo Mazzantini
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Cristian Zanoletti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.