France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 5
6 April 2002Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 11:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 5Olivier Brouzet
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Fabien Galthie(c)+6.5
- 10Gerald Merceron
- 11David Bory
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Tony Marsh
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Nicolas Brusque+1.9
Replacements
- 16Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 17Francois Gelez
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Olivier Azam
- 20Remy Martin
- 21Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 22Jimmy Marlu
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Gary Longwell
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Rob Henderson-2.2
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Keith Gleeson
- 17Ronan O'Gara
- 18Paul Wallace
- 19Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 20Shane Byrne
- 21Guy Easterby
- 22John Kelly
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.