Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 22
15 February 2003Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Ramiro Martinez Frugoni
- 4Cristian Bezzi
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 15Paolo Vaccari
Replacements
- 16Andrea Moretti
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Mark Giacheri
- 19Scott Palmer
- 20Juan Manuel Queirolo
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Ben Evans
- 4Robert Sidoli
- 5Steve Williams
- 6Michael Owen+2.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Iestyn Harris
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Leigh Davies
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Gareth Williams
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 19Gavin Thomas
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Matthew Watkins
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.