Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 36
16 February 2003Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 1.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Andrew Mower
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gordon Ross+3.2
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Brendan Laney
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Kenny Logan
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Steve Scott
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Ross Beattie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gregor Townsend
- 22Kevin Utterson
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Gary Longwell
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Victor Costello-4.5
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Leo Cullen+1.0
- 19Alan Quinlan
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21Paul Burke
- 22Geordan Murphy-2.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.