England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 5
9 March 2003Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Robbie Morris
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson(c)+7.0
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14James Simpson-Daniel
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Mike Worsley
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Alex Sanderson
- 20Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 21Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 22Ollie Smith
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Ramiro Martinez Frugoni
- 4Cristian Bezzi
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Paolo Vaccari
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Scott Palmer
- 20Matteo Mazzantini
- 21Gert Peens
- 22Andrea Masi-5.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.