New Zealand v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
70 – 7
11 October 2003Marvel Stadium, Melbourne · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Italy
- Kick-off
- 04:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 21 m
- Temperature
- 9.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Chris Jack
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Dan Carter+1.9
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Mark Hammett
- 17Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 18Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Steve Devine
- 21Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Ramiro Martinez Frugoni
- 4Carlo Checchinato(c)
- 5Cristian Bezzi
- 6Scott Palmer
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Matteo Mazzantini
- 10Francesco Mazzariol
- 11Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 12Matteo Barbini
- 13Andrea Masi-5.0
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 19Andrea Benatti
- 20Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 21Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 22Gonzalo Canale
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Possession | 8.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 952m | Carry metres | 279m |
| 37 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 48 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 20 | Offloads | 3 |
| 202 | Passes | 94 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Tackles made | 126 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 48 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 12 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 90.9% | Lineout success | 62.5% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 17 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Rucks won | 83 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 491m | Kick metres | 564m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 20 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.