Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 3
20 March 2004Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.6 mm
- Wind
- 53 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Donncha O'Callaghan
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Gary Longwell
- 19Victor Costello-4.5
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Kevin Maggs
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Andrea de Rossi(c)+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Scott Palmer
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Roland de Marigny
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Matteo Barbini
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gonzalo Canale
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 19Roberto Mandelli
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 22Andrea Masi-5.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.