Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 16
27 March 2004Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Victor Costello-4.5
- 20David Humphreys
- 21Guy Easterby
- 22Kevin Maggs
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Simon Webster+9.7
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Tom Philip
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Brendan Laney
- 22Derrick Lee
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.