Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 28
6 February 2005Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 3.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Giorgio Intoppa
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19David dal Maso
- 20Paul Griffen
- 21Walter Pozzebon
- 22Kaine Robertson-1.3
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Denis Leamy+5.0
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Eric Miller-2.2
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.