Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 40
12 February 2005Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.6 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch(c)
- 3Gavin Kerr
- 4Stuart Grimes
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Jon Petrie
- 8Ally Hogg
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Hugo Southwell
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Bruce Douglas
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Jon Dunbar
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Ben Hinshelwood
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Johnny O'Connor
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Shane Horgan+5.3
- 14Girvan Dempsey+0.1
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Eric Miller-2.2
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Gavin Duffy
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.