England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 18
14 February 2005London, London
What the model says about England v France
- Elevation
- 23 m
- Temperature
- 3.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Josh Lewsey
- 12Olly Barkley
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Jason Robinson(c)+5.5
Replacements
- 16Andy Titterrell
- 17Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Andy Hazell
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Henry Paul
- 22Ben Cohen
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Sebastien Bruno
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Yann Delaigue
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Brian Liebenberg
- 14Jimmy Marlu
- 15Pepito Elhorga
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18Gregory Lamboley
- 19Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 22Jean-Philippe Grandclaude
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.