France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 24
26 February 2005Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 0.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Sebastien Bruno
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Yann Delaigue
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Julien Laharrague
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18Gregory Lamboley
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 22Jean-Philippe Grandclaude
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Ryan Jones+7.9
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Kevin Morgan+4.7
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Robin Sowden-Taylor
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Rhys Williams
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.