Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 26
12 March 2005Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Johnny O'Connor
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Girvan Dempsey+0.1
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Marcus Horan
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Eric Miller-2.2
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Gavin Duffy
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Sebastien Bruno
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Yann Delaigue
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Benoit Baby
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 15Julien Laharrague
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Gregory Lamboley
- 20Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 21Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 22David Marty+6.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.