England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 22
19 March 2005Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 18:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Matt Stevens-0.0
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Duncan Bell
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Josh Lewsey
- 12Olly Barkley
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Andy Titterrell
- 17Mike Worsley
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Andy Hazell
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Andy Goode
- 22Ollie Smith
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch(c)
- 3Gavin Kerr
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Gordon Ross+3.2
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Hugo Southwell
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Rory Lamont+0.8
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Bruce Douglas
- 18Stuart Grimes
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Graeme Beveridge
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Andrew Henderson-4.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.