South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 16
30 July 2005Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 14.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Gary Botha
- 17Lawrence Sephaka
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Schalk Burger+6.0
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Wayne Julies
- 22Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Matt Dunning+1.3
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6John Roe
- 7George Smith
- 8Phil Waugh
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Morgan Turinui
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19Rocky Elsom
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.