Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 30
13 August 2005Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6John Roe
- 7George Smith
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Morgan Turinui
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Mark Gerrard
- 15Drew Mitchell+1.7
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga(c)-18.3
- 14Rico Gear
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Derren Witcombe
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18James Ryan
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Kevin Senio
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.