Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 16
4 February 2006Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Johnny O'Connor
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 15Cristian Stoica+7.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 20Aaron Persico
- 21Simon Picone+3.8
- 22Rima Wakarua-Noema
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.