Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 21
18 March 2006Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 2.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Michael Owen(c)+2.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Matthew Watkins
- 13Hal Luscombe
- 14Dafydd James-9.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 20Andy Williams
- 21Nicky Robinson
- 22Gavin Henson+4.0
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Thomas Lievremont-3.7
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Thomas Castaignede-2.7
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Olivier Magne+10.5
- 20Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 21Ludovic Valbon
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.