Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 18
5 August 2006Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Greg Holmes+9.7
- 2Tai McIsaac
- 3Rodney Blake
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Mark Gerrard
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Guy Shepherdson
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 21Mat Rogers
- 22Clyde Rathbone
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Johann Muller+4.2
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Solly Tyibilika
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Akona Ndungane
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Eddie Andrews
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Meyer Bosman
- 22Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.