South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 16
9 September 2006Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 13.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 45 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Johann Muller+4.2
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Pierre Spies-4.0
- 7AJ Venter
- 8Pedrie Wannenburg
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Akona Ndungane
- 15JP Pietersen+0.8
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Lawrence Sephaka
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Jacques Cronje
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Breyton Paulse-2.6
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Rodney Blake
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Cameron Shepherd
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Clyde Rathbone
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 0Steve R. Walsh
- 16Tai McIsaac
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 19George Smith
- 20Brett Sheehan
- 21Mark Gerrard
- 22Scott Staniforth
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.