Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 20
11 February 2007Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.9 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Isaac Boss
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Shane Horgan+5.3
- 13Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 14Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Neil Best
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Pascal Pape+1.7
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 9Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 10David Skrela
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12David Marty+6.7
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.