France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 19
17 March 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Sebastien Bruno
- 17Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Elvis Vermeulen
- 20Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 21Damien Traille+3.1
- 22Christophe Dominici-5.2
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Simon Taylor
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Rory Lawson-3.0
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Nikki Walker
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Rob Dewey
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 18Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 19David Callam
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Marcus di Rollo
- 22Rory Lamont+0.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.