Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 15
30 June 2007Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.5 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Julian Huxley
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Troy Flavell
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Luke McAlister
- 14Rico Gear
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Ross Filipo
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 22Nick Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.