France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 3
21 September 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 15.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 20Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 21Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 22Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 19Neil Best
- 20Isaac Boss
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Gavin Duffy
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 342m | Carry metres | 263m |
| 7 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 5 | Offloads | 8 |
| 94 | Passes | 102 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Tackles made | 68 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.