Argentina v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 13
7 October 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 3Martin Scelzo
- 4Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Lucas Ostiglia
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Gonzalo Longo Elia
- 9Agustin Pichot(c)
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 13Manuel Contepomi
- 14Lucas Borges
- 15Ignacio Corleto
Replacements
- 16Alberto Vernet Basualdo
- 17Omar Hasan Jalil
- 18Rimas Alvarez Kairelis
- 19Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 20Nicolas Fernandez Miranda
- 21Federico Todeschini
- 22Hernan Senillosa
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Rob Dewey
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 22Hugo Southwell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 234m | Carry metres | 343m |
| 5 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 6 | Offloads | 12 |
| 94 | Passes | 125 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Tackles made | 105 |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 84.6% | Lineout success | 94.7% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Rucks won | 63 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.