Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 27
3 February 2008Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.3 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8David Callam
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Simon Webster+9.7
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Fergus Thomson
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Chris Paterson+1.8
- 22Hugo Southwell
France
- 1Lionel Faure
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Julien Brugnaut
- 4Loic Jacquet
- 5Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Elvis Vermeulen
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Cedric Heymans-0.6
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 18Arnaud Mela
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21David Skrela
- 22Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.