Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 9
8 March 2008Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 15:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.1 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Macleod
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Chris Paterson+1.8
- 11Nikki Walker
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Rory Lamont+0.8
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Fergus Thomson
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Craig Smith
- 19Jason White+12.3
- 20Kelly Brown+3.1
- 21Rory Lawson-3.0
- 22Dan Parks+4.1
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Michael Lipman
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Lesley Vainikolo
- 12Toby Flood-1.2
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16George Chuter
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Ben Kay+9.1
- 19Luke Narraway
- 20Paul Hodgson
- 21Mathew Tait+7.9
- 22Charlie Hodgson-2.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.