Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 12
15 March 2008Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 19.6 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Matthew Rees-8.1
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Ian Evans+5.6
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Sonny Parker
France
- 1Fabien Barcella
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10David Skrela
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Anthony Floch
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Arnaud Mela
- 19Elvis Vermeulen
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.