Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 21
7 February 2009Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 0.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
- 12Paddy Wallace
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tom Court
- 18Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 22Geordan Murphy-2.5
France
- 1Lionel Faure
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Benoit Lecouls
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Maxime Médard+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 18Romain Millo-Chluski
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Benoit Baby
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.