England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 11
7 February 2009Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 0.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 5Nick Kennedy
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Steffon Armitage
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Andy Goode
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Croft-2.9
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Ben Foden
- 21Shane Geraghty
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 10Andrea Marcato
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 18Tommaso Reato
- 19Jean-Francois Montauriol
- 20Giulio Toniolatti
- 21Luke McLean
- 22Matteo Pratichetti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.