Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 38
15 February 2009Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Tommaso Reato
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Luke McLean
- 11Matteo Pratichetti
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Josh Sole
- 20Giulio Toniolatti
- 21Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 22Andrea Bacchetti
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
- 12Paddy Wallace
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tom Court
- 18Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 22Geordan Murphy-2.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 5 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.