France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 16
27 February 2009Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Fabien Barcella
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Benoit Baby
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 18Romain Millo-Chluski
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 21Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Andy Powell
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Gavin Henson+4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.