Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 6
28 February 2009Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 7.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jason White+12.3
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Thom Evans
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Kelly Brown+3.1
- 19Scott Gray
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Chris Paterson+1.8
- 22Nick de Luca
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Luke McLean
- 11Matteo Pratichetti
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 15Andrea Marcato
Replacements
- 16Franco Sbaraglini
- 17Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Josh Sole
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Andrea Bacchetti
- 22Guilio Rubini
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.