England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 12
21 March 2009Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 5Simon Shaw-2.6
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Joe Worsley+4.0
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Ugo Monye
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Nick Kennedy
- 19James Haskell+0.9
- 20Danny Care+3.0
- 21Andy Goode
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jason White+12.3
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Scott Gray
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Thom Evans
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Nick de Luca
- 22Hugo Southwell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.