South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 17
8 August 2009DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 14.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3John Smit(c)+6.0
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 18Andries Bekker+0.8
- 19Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Adrian Jacobs-2.7
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Richard Brown
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Luke Burgess
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Lachie Turner
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Ben Alexander-3.4
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19David Pocock+0.9
- 20Will Genia+2.0
- 21Peter Hynes
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 7 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.