New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 6
19 September 2009Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Tom Donnelly
- 6Adam Thomson+2.1
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8George Smith(c)
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Lachie Turner
- 15James O'Connor-0.2
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Pekahou Cowan
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Quade Cooper+4.9
- 22Peter Hynes
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.