Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 18
7 February 2010Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Moray Low-1.2
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Chris Cusiter(c)-5.1
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Thom Evans
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 18Richie Gray-0.1
- 19Alan MacDonald
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Alex Grove
- 22Hugo Southwell
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Pascal Pape+1.7
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Benjamin Fall
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Luc Ducalcon
- 18Julien Pierre
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21David Marty+6.7
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.