Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 26
26 February 2010Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Deiniol Jones
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Richie Rees
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Rhys Gill
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Sam Warburton
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Andrew Bishop
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Julien Pierre
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Alexis Palisson
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Alexandre Lapandry
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21David Marty+6.7
- 22Marc Andreu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.