England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 20
27 February 2010Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.2 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ugo Monye
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Louis Deacon-1.1
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Paul Hodgson
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Ben Foden
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Leo Cullen+1.0
- 19Shane Jennings
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.