South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 31
28 August 2010Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 18.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Ryan Kankowski
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Juan de Jongh-2.5
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 3Salesi Ma'afu
- 4Dean Mumm+2.1
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Richard Brown
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Ben McCalman+5.9
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Anthony Fainga'a
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.